College Football Analytics
Our model beat Vegas's closing line on 61.9% of picks last season.
Longleaf Picks runs every FBS matchup through a proprietary neural network trained on seven years of college football data, then shows you exactly where the market and our model disagree -> before kickoff. Last season it also picked the game's outright winner correctly 81.0% of the time.
Based on preformance from 2025-2026 season.
Away
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Last week's top pick will appear here once results are posted.
See every pick, every week →Overall Win Rate
81.0%
Win Rate against the spread
61.9%
Games trained on
4,722
The Proof
Our edge holds up week after week
Weekly performance games from the 2025 season, week 3 on. Three ways to measure an edge: picking the right winner, beating the closing spread, and beating Polymarket.
| Week | Games | Overall win rate | ATS win rate | vs. prediction market |
|---|
The process
How a pick gets made
We score every team, every week
A neural network trained on team and conference embeddings plus 40+ statistical features rates both sides of every matchup independently.
We compare our line to the sportsbook's
The difference between the two teams' scores becomes our projected spread. We check it against the current Vegas line for that game.
We flag where they disagree
A bigger gap between our line and Vegas's means more conviction. We publish the pick, the gap, and our win-probability estimate — you decide what to do with it.
Membership
One plan. Every pick, every week.
$19.99 to start
then $25.00 / year
- Every FBS matchup, from week 3 on
- LLP spread vs. Vegas line, side by side, with our edge highlighted
- Win-probability estimates for both teams
- Weekly power rankings and Strength of Record rankings
Questions
Before you join
Is this gambling advice?
No. Longleaf Picks is a sports analytics service, not a sportsbook or a betting advisor. We publish our model's projected spread next to the sportsbook's line so you can see where they disagree. What you do with that information is up to you.
How is this different from just reading the Vegas line?
A sportsbook sets its line to balance action on both sides of a bet, not necessarily to predict the most likely outcome. Our model is built purely to predict the outcome. When the two disagree by a wide margin, that gap is where the historical edge shows up.
How does billing work?
Membership starts at $19.99 for your first period, then renews at $25.00 per year. You can manage your membership from your account, or reach out to us with any billing questions.
Longleaf Picks provides sports analytics and predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not a sportsbook and do not accept wagers. Sports betting is not legal in every jurisdiction. Know your local laws before acting on any information here. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Longleaf Picks News:
Two Types of Rankings: Power Rankings and Strength of Record Rankings (SRR). What’s the difference?
How do LLP rankings work? Longleaf Picks offers two types of rankings: Power Rankings (LLP Rankings) and Strength of Record Rankings (SRR). What’s the difference?
More posts
How to use Longleaf Picks
Longleaf Picks provides a more accurate spread than Vegas for every big game. Here’s how you can use that information to place smarter bets: Example: