College Football Predictions, Built on Data
Our model correctly picked the winner in 70.4% of games last season.
Longleaf Picks runs every FBS matchup through our model, built on more than 10 years of college football data, and shows you exactly where our number and the sportsbook's line disagree before kickoff. It also beat the sportsbook's closing line on 54.3% of picks. That's a real, sustained edge. Anything above roughly 52% is enough to beat the house.
Monthly plans start with a free first month.
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Last week's top pick will appear here once results are posted.
See every pick, every week →Overall Win Rate
70.4%
Win Rate against the spread
54.3%
125-105, 230 games, 2025-2026 season
Games trained on
7,693
The Proof
Our edge holds up week after week
Weekly performance games from the 2025 season, week 10 on. Three ways to measure an edge: picking the right winner, beating the closing spread, and beating Polymarket.
| Week | Games | Overall win rate | ATS win rate | vs. prediction market |
|---|
The process
How a pick gets made
We score every team, every week
A neural network trained on team and conference embeddings plus 3,000+ results, stats, and trends, then predics who wins and by how much.
We compare our line to the sportsbook's
We compare it with the current Vegas line and our probabilities with prediction-market prices, then call out where we see a large edge.
We flag where they disagree
We publish the pick, the gap, and our win-probability estimate. You decide what to do with it.
Membership
Pick the plan that fits your season.
$40 / year
billed once, renews annually
- Every FBS matchup, from week 3 on
- LLP spread vs. Vegas line, side by side, with our edge highlighted
- Win-probability estimates for both teams
- Weekly power rankings and Strength of Record rankings
$10 / month
first month free · billed September–January only
- Every FBS matchup, from week 3 on
- LLP spread vs. Vegas line, side by side, with our edge highlighted
- Win-probability estimates for both teams
- Weekly power rankings and Strength of Record rankings
Questions
Before you join
Is this gambling advice?
No. Longleaf Picks is a sports analytics service, not a sportsbook or a betting advisor. We publish our model's projected spread next to the sportsbook's line so you can see where they disagree. What you do with that information is up to you.
How is this different from just reading the Vegas line?
A sportsbook sets its line to balance action on both sides of a bet, not necessarily to predict the most likely outcome. Our model is built purely to predict the outcome. When the two disagree by a wide margin, that gap is where the historical edge shows up.
Why should I trust a model over a paid tout or expert?
Because it's math, not a guru. The model scores every FBS matchup the same way, every week, using the same process, so there's no bias and no cherry-picking. Every pick is published in advance, and every result, win or loss, stays part of the record.
How does billing work?
Longleaf Picks offers two plans: $40/year billed once, or $10/month with your first month free, billed only during football season (September–January). You can manage your membership from your account, or reach out to us with any billing questions.