College football picks, graded
A pick for every FBS game, and the ones we're most confident in.
Our strongest picks: 55.6% against the spread over 676 bets, 2022–26. Tested week by week, on games we hadn't seen. Across every game we pick, the win rate is about break-even, and we show you that too.
Monthly plans start with a free first month.
Week 6 picks that hit
Every pick, in one card
The pick and line, cover chance, expected value, and tags for model agreement and line movement.
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- Cover chance
- EV / $100
- Fair line
- Edge
Line movement
CLV
55.6%
Strongest picks vs. the closing line
676 bets, 2022–26
4 of 4
Seasons above break-even
Strongest picks, 2022–25. Break-even is 52.4%.
51.8%
Every game
2,993 bets, 2022–26.
The record
Every season, good and bad
Win rate against the closing spread, by season. Every game together is close to break-even. Our strongest picks are where the lift is.
| Season | Every game: bets | Every game: win rate | Strongest picks: bets | Strongest picks: win rate |
|---|
The process
From data to pick
We study every game
Every FBS team, every week, broken down by thousands of data points most bettors never see.
We challenge the line
Our number goes head to head with the sportsbook's. Where we disagree, you see it first.
We grade every pick
Each pick is tagged by how strongly our analysis and the market back it, so you know which ones to lean on.
Membership
Pick the plan that fits your season.
$35 / year
billed once, renews annually
- Every FBS game, every week, from week 3
- Picks tagged by model agreement and market signals
- Cover chance, expected value and fair line
- Line movement: open, now, projected close
- Weekly power rankings and Strength of Record
$10 / month
first month free · billed September–January only
- Every FBS game, every week, from week 3
- Picks tagged by model agreement and market signals
- Cover chance, expected value and fair line
- Line movement: open, now, projected close
- Weekly power rankings and Strength of Record
Every plan includes
- Every FBS game, every week, from week 3
- Picks tagged by model agreement and market signals
- Cover chance, expected value and fair line
- Line movement: open, now, projected close
- Weekly power rankings and Strength of Record
Questions
Before you join
Is this gambling advice?
No. Longleaf Picks is a sports analytics service, not a sportsbook or a betting advisor. We publish our picks next to the sportsbook's line so you can see where they disagree. What you do with that information is up to you.
Is this a sure thing?
No. Even our strongest picks lose more than 4 times in 10. Over a full season all picks together are roughly break-even, and past results don't guarantee future ones. Only bet what you can afford to lose.
How is this different from just reading the Vegas line?
The line tells you what the market expects. We show you where we disagree with it, how strongly our analysis agrees, and whether the line is moving toward our pick or away from it.
Why should I trust a model over a paid tout or expert?
Because the record is public. Every game is scored the same way every week, every pick is posted before kickoff, and the results, including the losing seasons, are part of the record you can see above.
How does billing work?
Longleaf Picks offers two plans: $35/year billed once, or $10/month with your first month free, billed only during football season (September–January). You can manage your membership from your account, or reach out to us with any billing questions.
This week's picks are up.
Every FBS game, graded before kickoff. Monthly plans start with a free first month.
Get This Week's PicksPast results do not guarantee future results. Bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.