How do LLP rankings work?
Longleaf Picks offers two types of rankings: Power Rankings (LLP Rankings) and Strength of Record Rankings (SRR). What’s the difference?
Power Rankings (LLP Rankings):
Power rankings are based solely on how we expect teams to perform on a neutral field. These rankings are purely predictive and reflect how our model rates each team from best to worst based on advanced statistics. The LLP rankings do not take into account the AP Poll, College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings, or win-loss records. As a result, it’s not unusual for teams with multiple losses to be ranked higher than teams with near-perfect records, Power Rankings are all about predicting future performance, not rewarding or punishing past results.
Since Football is inherently random, with stuff like bad calls and bad clock management dramatically altering outcomes, Teams often overcome the odds. Thus, Power Rankings should not be used to argue if a team deserves to be in the College Football Playoff or in a better bowl game. Just because a team should be better on paper doesn’t mean they deserve special treatment.
Strength of Record Rankings (SRR):
Strength of Record rankings, on the other hand, evaluate what a team has accomplished so far. This is a résumé-based ranking that rewards teams for winning games against tough opponents and punishes teams for losing against opponents they should beat. These rankings are more aligned with what you might see in the AP Poll or CFP rankings. A team might be significantly higher in SRR rankings like the AP poll than what is reflected in their LLP Rank, especially if they consistently wins games they weren’t statistically favored to win. SRR (Strength of Record) rankings tells the story of what’s already happened; Power Rankings predicts what’s most likely to happen next.