Longleaf Picks provides a more accurate spread than Vegas for every big game. Here’s how you can use that information to place smarter bets:
Example: Take a look at this card displaying a fictional game between South Florida and Boise State. On the matchup card, you’ll see the teams’ records as well as their LLP (Longleaf Picks) Power Rankings. Below this, our pick for this game will be displayed with a drop down where you can see more information.
Our models generate a spread designed to make each game essentially a coin flip, similar to what Vegas does but with some key differences. Vegas selects the spread where they will make the most money based on the collective sum of dollars bet on each team. Longleaf picks generates a spread using data collected from previous games. We call this the LLP spread.
Because the LLP spread is more accurate than the spreads provided by oddsmakers, we can use it to gain an edge. In this fictional example, Vegas predicts Boise will win by 6 points. Our model also predicts a Boise State win, but by 11.64 points. Since the LLP model suggests that Vegas is underrating Boise State, the smart bet would be to bet on Boise State to cover against South Florida.
You can use this logic for every big game! But there are Some Important Things to Consider:
- Not all oddsmakers offer the same spread. The line on DraftKings might differ from the one on FanDuel. That’s okay, you can use the LLP spread to make an informed decision no matter where you place your bet, just remember to double check the line where you gamble.
- Some factors—like injuries or weather—cannot be accurately accounted for in our models (or any analytical model). Always do your own research before making a bet. Don’t give up your edge by forgetting to check the injury report.
And most importantly:
Never gamble with money you cannot afford to lose.