Every week we grade every pick we published, good weeks and bad. Picks are graded at the line on our site before kickoff. Pushes are shown but don’t count toward win percentage.
- Week 8, every pick: 32-23-1 (58.2%)
- Week 8, Unanimous picks: 6-5-1
- Week 8, free picks on X: 2-1
- Season, every pick: 165-153-8 (51.9%)
The season so far: good or lucky?
A few weeks of picks can’t tell you much about a model. Even a real edge loses plenty of weeks, so the useful question is how far our record sits from what our edge should produce.
Here’s where that expectation comes from. We ran a blind replay of every week of 2015–2025: the model retrained each week using only what it knew at the time, with no thresholds or parameters chosen after the fact. It’s the most rigorous test we know how to run. Its predictions lined up with how far the closing line missed at a correlation of about +0.07. A correlation that size works out to about 52.2% against the spread, and the replay itself hit 52.2% on 7,413 picks. Two independent routes, same answer. Keep in mind that 52.2% comes from picking every single FBS game, without using our betting tags or EV to be more selective.
The center of the curve is our core edge: over 318 picks, a 52.2% model wins about 166, and 95% of seasons land between 149 and 183 wins. We have 165 (51.9%), which beats about 45% of seasons that size. That’s right in the normal range. Nothing here says we’ve been especially lucky or unlucky. This is a pretty average season so far, considering that our models get more accurate as we get more data on each team.
Betting every game at -110 needs 52.4% to break even, so “every pick” is a measure of the model, not a betting plan. Our tags are how we separate the stronger picks (the Betting Guide explains each one).
A steadier measure: did we see the line’s misses coming?
Win-loss records settle slowly. A faster read is whether our predictions point the same way as the line’s actual misses, measured as a correlation: above zero means our numbers saw something the line didn’t.
This season it’s +0.039 over 326 games (95% range -0.07 to +0.15). The blind replay’s +0.065 to +0.074 sits inside that range. Single weeks bounce around a lot, which is normal, since each week is a small sample. That’s exactly why we don’t judge the model on one Saturday.
By tag
Records for the tags and tag pairings we feature in the Betting Guide, graded at our posted line. Tags went on the cards in week 7. The blind-replay column is what each one hit in our blind replay (graded at the close, Bet now at the open): a guide to what to expect over hundreds of picks, not a promise about a few weeks.
| Tags | Week 8 | Season (wk 7+) | Blind replay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Every pick | 32-23-1 (58%) | 60-51-4 (54%) | 52.2% (3870-3543) |
| Unanimous | 6-5-1 (55%) | 10-10-1 (50%) | 54.9% (367-301) |
| Majority | 3-3 | 7-7-1 (50%) | 51.2% (528-503) |
| Unanimous + Market Followed | 4-4 | 8-6 (57%) | 58.7% (210-148) |
| Unanimous + +CLV | 4-4 | 8-6 (57%) | 55.8% (203-161) |
| Majority + −CLV | 1-2 | 3-3 | 55.3% (89-72) |
| Majority + Market Followed | 1-2 | 3-3 | 54.8% (91-75) |
| Unanimous + Bet now | – | – | 53.9% (118-101) |
| Unanimous + Market Rejected | 1-1-1 | 1-4-1 | 53.1% (113-100) |
| Unanimous + −CLV | 0-1-1 | 0-2-1 | 53.0% (89-79) |
Week 8 rundown
The games we were watching
The games we wrote about as they played out, and how our picks did.
#25 Texas A&M at #8 Alabama
Final: Texas A&M 20, Alabama 31
Our pick: Texas A&M +14 · Win · Market Rejected, −CLV
Texas A&M covered by 3. The line moved 0.75 pts our way before kickoff (closed +13.25).
Our take: Texas A&M covered, but they look so pedestrian compared to last year that I can’t help but be confused.
#16 Tennessee at South Carolina
Final: Tennessee 24, South Carolina 27
Our pick: South Carolina -2.5 · Win · Unanimous, Market Followed, +CLV
South Carolina covered by 0.5. The line didn’t move after we published.
Our take: When you get a game like this where the models predict an unranked South Carolina to win by 3 against a ranked Tennessee coming off a signature win, you’ve just got to turn off your brain and let the models cook.
#13 Ole Miss at #14 Texas
Final: Ole Miss 27, Texas 34
Our pick: Ole Miss +3.5 · Loss · Market Followed, +CLV
Ole Miss missed by 3.5. The line moved 0.5 pts our way before kickoff (closed +3).
Our take: Arch played football in this game. I still don’t know if Texas is good.
#10 BYU at UCF
Final: BYU 31, UCF 39
Our pick: BYU -6.5 · Loss · Majority, Market Followed, −CLV
BYU missed by 14.5. The line moved 1 pt our way before kickoff (closed -7.5).
Our take: Scott Frost with a huge ranked win. Didn’t get one of those in Nebraska somehow. UCF with their first-ever top-5 win!
For BYU, this one has gotta sting. To make the playoff, they have to win out.
I also just don’t understand Big 12 officiating. What was that?
Houston at #12 Utah
Final: Houston 13, Utah 21
Our pick: Houston +6.5 · Loss · No Movement
Houston missed by 1.5. The line didn’t move after we published.
Our take: Scalley is 8-0 and has exceeded expectations. This year’s Holy War is going to be awesome.
Iowa State at #17 Arizona
Final: Iowa State 3, Arizona 39
Our pick: Arizona -10.5 · Win · Unanimous, Market Followed, +CLV
Arizona covered by 25.5. The line moved 1.5 pts our way before kickoff (closed -12).
Our take: Arizona is the most slept-on team in the country.
#9 Texas Tech at Cincinnati
Final: Texas Tech 24, Cincinnati 37
Our pick: Texas Tech -10.5 · Loss · Majority, No Movement
Texas Tech missed by 23.5. The line moved 0.25 pts our way before kickoff (closed -10.75).
Our take: I think all this talk of three or four Big 12 teams in the playoff cursed the conference today.
This was the most surprising result of the day for me.
#15 USC at Wisconsin
Final: USC 7, Wisconsin 24
Our pick: Wisconsin +3 · Win · Market Rejected, −CLV
Wisconsin covered by 20. The line moved 1 pt our way before kickoff (closed +2).
Our take: USC had -17 rushing yards. This team just cannot move the ball on the ground and it’s making them one-dimensional. The future still looks bright, though, with lots of great young players.
Wisconsin is back in the top 25. Luke Fickell with a much-needed big win.
California at SMU
Final: California 20, SMU 59
Our pick: SMU -19.5 · Win · Market Rejected, +CLV
SMU covered by 19.5. The line moved 1 pt against us before kickoff (closed -18.5).
Our take: There is a potential future where we get three ACC teams in the playoff and nobody is talking about it.
Pittsburgh at #4 Miami
Final: Pittsburgh 23, Miami 52
Our pick: Pittsburgh +19.5 · Loss · Unanimous, Market Followed, +CLV
Pittsburgh missed by 9.5. The line moved 1 pt against us before kickoff (closed +20.5).
Our take: This Miami team is just so good. They look like a well-oiled machine. I would not be surprised to see them on a Monday in January.
Pitt also just couldn’t get out of their own way. 19 points is a lot.
Syracuse at North Carolina
Final: Syracuse 31, North Carolina 30
Our pick: Syracuse +7.5 · Win · Market Followed, +CLV
Syracuse covered by 8.5. The line moved 0.75 pts against us before kickoff (closed +8.25).
Our take: Make your extra points, kids. Syracuse should have won this in regulation.
Instead, we had to watch the ACC refs look at the worst camera angle possible for 10 minutes.
Virginia Tech at Clemson
Final: Virginia Tech 20, Clemson 16
Our pick: Virginia Tech +2.5 · Win · Market Rejected, −CLV
Virginia Tech covered by 6.5. The line moved 0.5 pts against us before kickoff (closed +3).
Our take: We have picked the Hokies in every single game this year.
#20 Oregon at Illinois
Final: Oregon 10, Illinois 21
Our pick: Illinois +9.5 · Win · Market Followed, +CLV
Illinois covered by 20.5. The line moved 0.75 pts against us before kickoff (closed +10.25).
Our take: When we picked Illinois, we did not expect this ass-kicking. Oregon has spent way too much money on this roster to be this pedestrian.
#6 Iowa at Minnesota
Final: Iowa 10, Minnesota 13
Our pick: Iowa -6.5 · Loss · Unanimous, Market Followed, +CLV
Iowa missed by 9.5. The line moved 1.25 pts our way before kickoff (closed -7.75).
Our take: Iowa comes off a bye and decides to return to form and play a Big Ten West classic.
Rutgers at Northwestern
Final: Rutgers 14, Northwestern 42
Our pick: Northwestern -16.5 · Win · No Movement
Northwestern covered by 11.5. The line moved 1 pt against us before kickoff (closed -15.5).
Our take: Northwestern is legit. Nothing else to add here.
#7 LSU at Auburn
Final: LSU 38, Auburn 17
Our pick: LSU -7.5 · Win · Unanimous, Market Followed, +CLV
LSU covered by 13.5. The line moved 0.5 pts against us before kickoff (closed -7).
Our take: LSU has enough talent to beat anybody, but they are sloppy enough to lose to anyone.
Free picks on X
Chosen by a public rule and posted before kickoff.
Closing-line pick: Iowa -6.5 (Iowa at Minnesota) · Loss · Final: Iowa 10, Minnesota 13 (missed by 9.5)
Closing-line pick: Arizona -10.5 (Iowa State at Arizona) · Win · Final: Iowa State 3, Arizona 39 (covered by 25.5)
Closing-line pick: Liberty -10 (Liberty at Kennesaw State) · Win · Final: Liberty 34, Kennesaw State 6 (covered by 18)
Every week 8 result
| Matchup | Our pick | Final | Result | EV | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State at Delaware | Delaware -3 | Missouri State 38, Delaware 61 | Win (+20) | +$1.85 | Majority |
| Middle Tennessee at Florida International | Florida International -10 | Middle Tennessee 26, Florida International 23 | Loss (-13) | −$5.14 | |
| South Alabama at Marshall | South Alabama -2.5 | South Alabama 13, Marshall 20 | Loss (-9.5) | −$6.99 | −CLV |
| New Mexico State at Sam Houston | New Mexico State -3 | New Mexico State 30, Sam Houston 24 | Win (+3) | −$2.08 | Market Rejected |
| #19 James Madison at App State | App State +10.5 | James Madison 31, App State 34 | Win (+13.5) | ≥ +$1.00 | Unanimous, No Movement |
| #21 Liberty at Kennesaw State | Liberty -10 | Liberty 34, Kennesaw State 6 | Win (+18) | ≥ +$1.00 | Unanimous, Market Followed, +CLV |
| East Carolina at Memphis | East Carolina +10 | East Carolina 34, Memphis 41 | Win (+3) | −$3.25 | Market Rejected |
| Massachusetts at UConn | UConn -14.5 | Massachusetts 16, UConn 35 | Win (+4.5) | −$6.51 | Market Followed, −CLV |
| Duke at Virginia | Duke +1.5 | Duke 19, Virginia 16 | Win (+4.5) | −$3.71 | Market Followed, +CLV |
| Army at Tulsa | Army +1.5 | Army 38, Tulsa 35 | Win (+4.5) | +$0.84 | Unanimous, Market Rejected |
| Air Force at Wyoming | Air Force -5.5 | Air Force 14, Wyoming 28 | Loss (-19.5) | ≥ +$1.00 | Majority, Market Followed, −CLV |
| NC State at Stanford | NC State -6.5 | NC State 28, Stanford 31 | Loss (-9.5) | −$4.03 | Market Followed, −CLV |
| Hawai’i at Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois +4.5 | Hawai’i 56, Northern Illinois 21 | Loss (-30.5) | −$1.17 | Market Followed, +CLV |
| Rice at Florida Atlantic | Florida Atlantic -7.5 | Rice 49, Florida Atlantic 51 | Loss (-5.5) | −$0.92 | Market Followed, −CLV |
| North Dakota State at #23 New Mexico | New Mexico -4.5 | North Dakota State 16, New Mexico 21 | Win (+0.5) | −$0.15 | Market Rejected, +CLV |
| UTSA at Tulane | UTSA -2.5 | UTSA 42, Tulane 19 | Win (+20.5) | ≥ +$1.00 | Majority, Market Followed, −CLV |
| #25 Texas A&M at #8 Alabama | Texas A&M +14 | Texas A&M 20, Alabama 31 | Win (+3) | −$1.66 | Market Rejected, −CLV |
| Sacramento State at Ball State | Ball State -14.5 | Sacramento State 17, Ball State 34 | Win (+2.5) | −$3.48 | Market Rejected, +CLV |
| Akron at Kent State | Akron +3 | Akron 20, Kent State 35 | Loss (-12) | −$1.97 | No Movement |
| Bowling Green at Buffalo | Buffalo -3 | Bowling Green 24, Buffalo 31 | Win (+4) | −$3.67 | Market Followed, −CLV |
| Eastern Michigan at Ohio | Ohio -12.5 | Eastern Michigan 20, Ohio 24 | Loss (-8.5) | +$0.38 | Unanimous, Market Followed, +CLV |
| Western Michigan at Toledo | Toledo -3 | Western Michigan 38, Toledo 45 | Win (+4) | −$4.56 | Market Rejected, +CLV |
| Miami (OH) at Central Michigan | Miami (OH) -2.5 | Miami (OH) 28, Central Michigan 27 | Loss (-1.5) | −$2.50 | Market Followed, +CLV |
| Georgia State at Arkansas State | Arkansas State +2.5 | Georgia State 32, Arkansas State 38 | Win (+8.5) | −$3.15 | Market Followed, −CLV |
| Louisiana at Southern Miss | Louisiana -10 | Louisiana 31, Southern Miss 35 | Loss (-14) | −$3.02 | Market Followed |
| San José State at Nevada | Nevada -5.5 | San José State 13, Nevada 28 | Win (+9.5) | −$0.14 | Market Rejected |
| Old Dominion at Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech -12.5 | Old Dominion 0, Louisiana Tech 26 | Win (+13.5) | ≥ +$1.00 | Majority, Market Rejected, +CLV |
| UL Monroe at Troy | Troy -14 | UL Monroe 21, Troy 14 | Loss (-21) | −$4.41 | Market Followed, −CLV |
| West Virginia at TCU | TCU -9.5 | West Virginia 24, TCU 20 | Loss (-13.5) | −$3.57 | Market Rejected, +CLV |
| Oklahoma at Mississippi State | Oklahoma -4.5 | Oklahoma 23, Mississippi State 15 | Win (+3.5) | −$2.77 | Market Rejected, +CLV |
| #16 Tennessee at South Carolina | South Carolina -2.5 | Tennessee 24, South Carolina 27 | Win (+0.5) | ≥ +$1.00 | Unanimous, Market Followed, +CLV |
| #13 Ole Miss at #14 Texas | Ole Miss +3.5 | Ole Miss 27, Texas 34 | Loss (-3.5) | −$2.25 | Market Followed, +CLV |
| Baylor at Kansas | Kansas +3 | Baylor 24, Kansas 25 | Win (+4) | −$4.35 | Market Rejected, −CLV |
| #10 BYU at UCF | BYU -6.5 | BYU 31, UCF 39 | Loss (-14.5) | ≥ +$1.00 | Majority, Market Followed, −CLV |
| Colorado at Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State -13.5 | Colorado 24, Oklahoma State 57 | Win (+19.5) | −$1.91 | No Movement, −CLV |
| Houston at #12 Utah | Houston +6.5 | Houston 13, Utah 21 | Loss (-1.5) | −$2.88 | No Movement |
| Iowa State at #17 Arizona | Arizona -10.5 | Iowa State 3, Arizona 39 | Win (+25.5) | ≥ +$1.00 | Unanimous, Market Followed, +CLV |
| Kansas State at Arizona State | Kansas State -3.5 | Kansas State 17, Arizona State 28 | Loss (-14.5) | −$0.48 | Market Rejected |
| #9 Texas Tech at Cincinnati | Texas Tech -10.5 | Texas Tech 24, Cincinnati 37 | Loss (-23.5) | +$0.61 | Majority, No Movement |
| #15 USC at Wisconsin | Wisconsin +3 | USC 7, Wisconsin 24 | Win (+20) | −$0.25 | Market Rejected, −CLV |
| California at SMU | SMU -19.5 | California 20, SMU 59 | Win (+19.5) | −$2.46 | Market Rejected, +CLV |
| Boston College at Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech -4 | Boston College 49, Georgia Tech 27 | Loss (-26) | −$3.21 | Market Followed, −CLV |
| Pittsburgh at #4 Miami | Pittsburgh +19.5 | Pittsburgh 23, Miami 52 | Loss (-9.5) | ≥ +$1.00 | Unanimous, Market Followed, +CLV |
| Syracuse at North Carolina | Syracuse +7.5 | Syracuse 31, North Carolina 30 | Win (+8.5) | −$3.38 | Market Followed, +CLV |
| Virginia Tech at Clemson | Virginia Tech +2.5 | Virginia Tech 20, Clemson 16 | Win (+6.5) | −$5.10 | Market Rejected, −CLV |
| #20 Oregon at Illinois | Illinois +9.5 | Oregon 10, Illinois 21 | Win (+20.5) | −$0.75 | Market Followed, +CLV |
| #5 Indiana at Michigan | Michigan +7 | Indiana 13, Michigan 6 | Push | ≥ +$1.00 | Unanimous, Market Rejected, −CLV |
| #6 Iowa at Minnesota | Iowa -6.5 | Iowa 10, Minnesota 13 | Loss (-9.5) | ≥ +$1.00 | Unanimous, Market Followed, +CLV |
| Rutgers at Northwestern | Northwestern -16.5 | Rutgers 14, Northwestern 42 | Win (+11.5) | −$2.71 | No Movement |
| Michigan State at #18 UCLA | UCLA -14 | Michigan State 10, UCLA 28 | Win (+4) | −$2.92 | Market Rejected |
| Vanderbilt at Kentucky | Kentucky -10.5 | Vanderbilt 17, Kentucky 34 | Win (+6.5) | −$1.62 | Market Rejected, +CLV |
| #7 LSU at Auburn | LSU -7.5 | LSU 38, Auburn 17 | Win (+13.5) | +$0.06 | Unanimous, Market Followed, +CLV |
| North Texas at Navy | Navy +2.5 | North Texas 49, Navy 39 | Loss (-7.5) | ≥ +$1.00 | Unanimous, Market Rejected, −CLV |
| #22 Boise State at Washington State | Boise State -13.5 | Boise State 31, Washington State 10 | Win (+7.5) | −$0.56 | Market Followed |
| Utah State at Texas State | Texas State -13.5 | Utah State 17, Texas State 20 | Loss (-10.5) | ≥ +$1.00 | Unanimous, Market Followed, +CLV |
| San Diego State at Colorado State | San Diego State -1.5 | San Diego State 49, Colorado State 56 | Loss (-8.5) | −$4.35 | Market Followed, −CLV |
This week’s picks are up at LongleafPicks.com: every FBS game, with tags, cover chances and line movement.
How we grade: each pick at the line posted on our site before kickoff, at standard -110. Expected rates come from our blind replay, not a promise of future results. Past results do not guarantee future results. 21+. Bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.